US election

Ron Faucheux’s Trump Delegate Benchmarks

By April 6, 2016 One Comment

Ron Faucheux, Political analyst and President of Clarus Research Group part of MSLGROUP Washington DC.

Trump now has 743 delegates. He needs 494 more. Here are how many delegates Trump needs to win in each of the 17 remaining states to get there:

April 8: Colorado, 10 out of 31 (Colorado has 37 delegates, but Cruz has already won 6)
April 19: New York, 90 of 95
April 26: Connecticut, 19 of 28; Delaware, 16 of 16; Maryland, 22 of 38; Pennsylvania, 44 of 71; Rhode Island, 11 of 19
May 3: Indiana, 25 of 57
May 10: Nebraska, 36 of 36; West Virginia, 24 of 34
May 17: Oregon, 13 of 28
May 24: Washington state, 20 out of 44
June 7: California, 105 of 172; Montana, 0 of 27; New Jersey, 51 of 51; New Mexico, 8 of 24; and South Dakota, 0 of 29.

As you can see, Trump needs to capture 202 of the 267 delegates from northeastern states New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania. He also needs to win a hefty share of the delegates from California. If he falls short in those states, the only place he could go to make up significant shortcomings would be from the 56 delegates to be elected in winner-take-all states Montana and South Dakota, which our scenario now assumes he won’t win.

While Trump is still likely to be the delegate leader after the June 7 primaries, the possibility that no candidate will have the required majority of delegates going into the convention is rapidly increasing.

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