US election

Nov 2nd Polling Update from Ron Faucheux

By November 2, 2016 No Comments

by Ron Faucheux, President of Clarus Research Group, MSLGROUP’s full service polling and research company. Ron publishes a daily newsletter on the latest polls at lunchtimepolitics.com

LUNCHTIME POLITICS POLLING AVERAGE
Based on the most recent national polls

Clinton: 44.3%
Trump: 42.8%
Johnson: 4.5%
Stein: 1.8%

CLINTON LEAD: 1.5

RON’S COMMENT: Since Friday, Clinton’s lead has slid from 4.4 points to 2 points yesterday to 1.5 points today. Compared to yesterday, Clinton is down two-tenths of a point, Trump is up three-tenths of a point, Johnson is down five-tenths of a point and Stein is down 1 point. Today’s averages indicate that the third-party candidates declined 1.5 points since yesterday.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: NATIONAL
Among voters nationwide

Includes third-party candidates:
ABC/WP: Trump over Clinton: +1 (46-45-L3-G2)
Rasmussen: Clinton and Trump: even (44-44-L5-G2)
IBD/TIPP: Clinton over Trump: +1 (45-44-L4-G2)
Reuters: Clinton over Trump: +6 (43-37-L6-G1)

Two-way matches:
ABC/WP: Clinton over Trump: +1 (48-47)
IBD/TIPP: Clinton over Trump: +1 (45-44)
Reuters: Clinton over Trump: +5 (44-39)

RON’S COMMENT: Most (but not all) of the interviewing for today’s polls was conducted after the Comey letter was released…. Notice that the ABC/WP tracker has Trump ahead for the first time…. Clinton’s “trading range” in today’s 4-way matches is a fairly tight 43-45% and Trump’s range is 37-46%.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: IN THE STATES
Among voters statewide

Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall) Clinton over Trump: + 11 (49-38-L4-G2)
Pennsylvania (Remington-R): Clinton over Trump: +2 (45-43-L3-O1)
Georgia (SurveyUSA): Trump over Clinton: +7 (49-47-L3)
New Hampshire (WMUR/UNH): Clinton over Trump: +7 (46-39-L6-G1)
Michigan (Mitchell): Clinton over Trump: +6 (47-41-L6-G2)
North Carolina (Remington-R): Trump over Clinton: +2 (47-45-L2-O1)
Nevada: (Remington-R): Trump over Clinton: +4 (48-44-L4-O1)
Colorado (Remington-R): Clinton over Trump: + 1 (45-44-L4-O3)
Indiana (Monmouth): Trump over Clinton: +11 (50-39-L4-O2)
Virginia (WP): Clinton over Trump: +6 (48-42-L6-G2)
Virginia (Emerson): Clinton over Trump: +4 (49-45-L3-G1)

RON’S COMMENT: As you will notice, four of these state polls were produced by Remington Research (R), which has often shown Trump doing better than other surveys taken about the same time…. Looking at all the recent polling in these states, here are the current Lunchtime Politics Polling Averages:

• Pennsylvania: Clinton +5.3
• Nevada: Trump +1
• Colorado: Clinton +2
• Virginia: Clinton +4.7
• Michigan: Clinton +6.5
• Georgia: Trump +4
• New Hampshire: Clinton +4.5
• North Carolina: Clinton +0.5
• Indiana: Trump +11

SENATE: 2016
Among voters statewide

Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall): Katie McGinty (D) over Sen. Pat Toomey (R): +12 (47-35)
Pennsylvania (Gravis): Katie McGinty (D) over Sen. Pat Toomey (R): +4 (45-41)
Indiana (Monmouth): Evan Bayh (D) and Todd Young (R): even (45-45)
New Hampshire (UNH/WMUR): Maggie Hassan (D) over Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R): +2 (46-44)
Missouri (Scout/BK): Sen. Roy Blunt (R) over Jason Kander (D): +3 (47-44)
Illinois (Emerson): Tammy Duckworth (D) over Sen. Mark Kirk (R): +18 (54-36)
Georgia (SurveyUSA): Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) over Jim Barksdale (D): +12 (50-38-L5)

RON’S COMMENT: The Franklin & Marshall poll shows McGinty suddenly running away with the Pennsylvania race––which is hard to believe. The Gravis survey gives McGinty a less dramatic advantage, which is more in line with other recent polling. In any case, the last five polls have been consistent about one thing: McGinty is in the lead. The Lunchtime Politics Polling Average puts McGinty (D) ahead by 5.3 points…. The Indiana poll is big news, showing former Sen. Bayh has lost the lead in his comeback bid. The Lunchtime Politics Polling Average puts Bayh (D) ahead by 1 point…. The Missouri race remains close. The Lunchtime Politics Polling Average puts Blunt ahead by 1.3 points…. This poll shows Duckworth holding a substantial lead over GOP incumbent Kirk in Illinois…. In New Hampshire, The Lunchtime Politics Polling Average has the race a tie.