US election

Nov 4th Polling Update from Ron Faucheux

By November 4, 2016 No Comments

by Ron Faucheux, President of Clarus Research Group, MSLGROUP’s full service polling and research company. Ron publishes a daily newsletter on the latest polls at lunchtimepolitics.com

OBAMA PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL: AVERAGE 51%
Down 1 from yesterday; down 3 from a week ago

LUNCHTIME POLITICS POLLING AVERAGE
Based on the most recent national polls

Clinton: 45.3%
Trump: 43.8%
Johnson: 3.8%
Stein: 1.8%

CLINTON LEAD: 1.5

RON’S COMMENT: Has a modest Clinton recovery begun? A week ago, Clinton’s average lead was 4.4 points. It declined all this week until it hit a low point yesterday at a mere half a point. Today, it’s 1.5 points. Since yesterday, Clinton’s vote is up eight-tenths of a point, Trump’s vote is down two-tenths of a point, Johnson is down two-tenths of a point and Stein is down five-tenths of a point.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: NATIONAL
Among voters nationwide

Includes third-party candidates:
ABC/WP: Clinton over Trump: +3 (47-44-L3-G2)
Rasmussen: Clinton and Trump: even (44-44-L4-G1)
IBD/TIPP: Clinton and Trump: even (44-44-L4-G2)

Two-way matches:
ABC/WP: Clinton over Trump: +3 (49-46)
IBD/TIPP: Clinton over Trump: +1 (45-44)

RON’S COMMENT: The ABC/WP tracking poll signals a possible Clinton recovery. Their polling on Oct. 30 ––which was right after release of the Comey letter––had Trump ahead by a point. Today, they have Clinton ahead by 3 points. Trump leads whites in the latest data, 53-38. Clinton leads blacks, 90-5, and Hispanics, 68-27. But… the poll shows that 53% of Trump’s supporters are strongly enthusiastic, while 47% of Clinton’s supporters are strongly enthusiastic. Voters also have more trust in Trump on honesty and corruption by a 48-39 margin. Additionally, the survey finds that the economy remains the top issue and that voters are split, 47-47, in terms of which candidate would do better handling it. Trump’s limitation on the economic issue, however, is that many more Democrats cite the issue as most important than do Republicans or independents. The pollsters estimate that Clinton is leading early voting by 5 points…. Trading ranges in 4-way trial heats: Clinton 44-47%, Trump 44-44%.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: IN THE STATES
Among voters statewide

Florida (Opinion Savvy): Clinton over Trump: +4 (49-45-L3-G1)
Florida (Gravis): Clinton over Trump: +3 (49-46-L2-G1)
New Hampshire (UMass Lowell): Clinton and Trump: even (44-44-L5-G2)
New Hampshire (Suffolk): Trump and Clinton: even (42-42-L5-G2)
New Hampshire (ARG): Trump over Clinton: +5 (48-43-L4-G1)
Virginia (Roanoke): Clinton over Trump: +7 (45-38-L5-G2)
Pennsylvania (Gravis): Clinton over Trump: +1 (47-46-L3-G2)
Colorado (Magellan-R): Clinton over Trump: +6 (44-38-L7-G2)
Arizona (NBC/Marist): Trump over Clinton: +5 (45-40-L9-G3)
Nevada (JMC): Clinton and Trump: even (45-45-L4)
Utah (Monmouth): Trump over Clinton: +6 (37-31-McMullin 24-L4-G1)
Utah (Emerson): Trump over McMullin: +12 (40-28-D20-L3-G2)
Utah (Rasmussen): Trump over Clinton: +11 (42-31-McMullin 21-L3)
Georgia (NBC/Marist): Trump over Clinton: +1 (45-44-L8)
Texas (NBC/Marist): Trump over Clinton: +9 (49-40-L6-G2)
Texas (Emerson): Trump over Clinton: +14 (49-35-L5-G4)

RON’S COMMENT: A lot of mixed messages coming from today’s state polls…. Two new polls both give Clinton the edge in Florida, which is rapidly becoming her firewall, shaky that it may be. At the same time, the New Hampshire race has tightened in Trump’s favor. One new poll even shows Trump leading…. While Clinton holds the advantage in Virginia and Colorado, this Pennsylvania poll shows the state is nearly even. If Pennsylvania breaks loose, Clinton is in trouble…. While Trump posts a lead in Arizona, a red state that the Clinton campaign has made a major effort to win, the race is even in Nevada, a state Obama carried twice…. The Georgia poll is good news for Clinton, showing she has a chance to upset Trump in this usually reliable GOP bastion, but Utah’s numbers indicate that Trump has built back a lead.

Cautionary note: We’re seeing a flood of new state polling as we get closer to Election Day. While most of these polls are likely to be properly conducted and at least fairly accurate, some could be way off. That means you should keep looking for breaks and trends confirmed by multiple surveys. Don’t put too much stock in any one poll.

Newly revised Lunchtime Politics Polling Averages in key states:

• Florida: Clinton +1
• Virginia: Clinton +5
• Pennsylvania: Clinton +2.3
• New Hampshire: Trump +1.5
• Colorado: Clinton +3
• Arizona: Trump +5
• Nevada: Trump +3
• Utah: Trump +9.7
• Georgia: Trump +5

SENATE: 2016
Among voters statewide

Florida (Quinnipiac): Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Patrick Murphy (D): +6 (50-44)
Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac): Katie McGinty (D) over Sen. Pat Toomey (R): +1 (48-47)
New Hampshire (Boston Globe): Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) over Maggie Hassan (D): +2 (44-42)
New Hampshire (UMass/Lowell): Maggie Hassan (D) over Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R): +1 (47-46)
North Carolina (Quinnipiac): Deborah Ross (D) over Sen. Richard Burr (R): +4 (49-45)
Arizona (NBC/WSJ): Sen. John McCain (R) over Ann Kirkpatrick (D): +16 (55-39)
Georgia (NBC/WSJ): Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) over Jim Barksdale (D): +11 (48-37)
Ohio (Quinnipiac): Sen. Rob Portman (R) over Ted Strickland (D): +18 (56-38)
California (LA Times): Kamala Harris (D) over Loretta Sanchez (D): +17 (48-31)

RON’S COMMENT: Challenger McGinty has led the last nine polls in Pennsylvania, although this one shows the race very close…. Two new polls from New Hampshire show the race leaning slightly in different directions…. Of the last seven polls from North Carolina, incumbent Burr has led three, Ross has led two and two show a tie…. Incumbents McCain in Arizona and Isakson in Georgia appear to be holding on to clear leads as we enter the home stretch…. Rubio continues to lead in Florida, although his average margin is modest…. Harris maintains a strong advantage in California…. Same for Portman in Ohio.

Newly revised Lunchtime Politics Polling Averages on key Senate races:

• New Hampshire: Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) +1.3
• North Carolina: Sen. Richard Burr (R) +0.7
• Pennsylvania: Katie McGinty (D) +3.8
• Florida: Sen. Marco Rubio (R): +3.7
• Colorado: Sen. Michael Bennet (D) +6
• Arizona: Sen. John McCain (R) +11.7
• Ohio: Sen. Rob Portman (R) +16
• Georgia: Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) +9.5

GOVERNOR: 2016
Among voters statewide

New Hampshire (UMass/Lowell): Chris Sununu (R) over Colin Van Ostern (D): +4 (47-43)
New Hampshire (Boston Globe): Chris Sununu (R) over Colin Van Ostern (D): +4 (41-37)
North Carolina (Quinnipiac): Roy Cooper (D) over Gov. Pat McCrory (R): +2 (49-47)
Utah (Monmouth): Gov. Gary Herbert (R) over Mike Weinholtz (D): +33 (63-30)

RON’S COMMENT: Looks like the trend in New Hampshire over the past week has favored the GOP. Sununu has regained the lead in the open governor’s race. The Lunchtime Politics Polling Average puts Sununu ahead by 4.3 points…. Democratic challenger Cooper holds the edge in North Carolina. The Lunchtime Politics Polling Average puts Cooper ahead by 1 point…. Utah’s GOP incumbent Herbert is on the verge of winning a third term in a blowout.

EARLY VOTING
Among likely voters nationwide

“Do you think you’ll vote in person at your polling place on Election Day, or vote before Election Day by early voting or mail-in ballot?”

Vote in person: 52%
Early voting/mail in ballot: 20%
Already voted: 27%

RON’S COMMENT: Election Day ain’t what it used to be. This national survey shows that nearly half the electorate has either already voted or intends to vote early or by mail-in ballot. Fortunately, we still have Dixville Notch.