Previously we have highlighted how Conservative voters are roughly split on the EU referendum, with the majority of polls giving Leave the edge. Last week, however, two polls highlighted a potential shift with both Ipsos Mori and ComRes giving Remain a lead amongst Conservative voters.
When looking at Ipsos Mori, 51 per cent of Conservative supporters said they would be voting for Remain, with 33% voting for Leave. ComRes reported 49 per cent of Conservative voters were in favour of Remain compared to 45 per cent supporting Leave. Two isolated polls need to be treated with caution but it will be worth monitoring to see if this becomes a trend. It may confirm that David Cameron’s campaigning is working.
More broadly there have been some interesting commentaries on the differences between phone and online polls. Peter Kellner has noted that online polls have tended to have a disproportionate number of UKIP voters among the sample, which may explain why they tend to show higher figures for Leave.
He suggests that the phone polls are likely to be more accurate. But Andy Morris of YouGov has revealed that an experiment they conducted, running online and phone polls simultaneously over a two week period and ensuring that they repeatedly contacted harder-to-reach people over the phone, resulted in a lead for Leave in both cases. The plot thickens…
By Lexington Communications