US election

Analysis by Ron Faucheux

By March 15, 2016 No Comments

Politisk analytiker, ordförande för Clarus Research Group, del av MSLGROUP

Today, five states will hold presidential primaries: Florida, Illinois, Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri.

On the Republican side, two states, Florida with 99 delegates and Ohio with 66 delegates, are winner-take-all. Illinois is a winner-take-most state and North Carolina and Missouri select delegates proportionally. The latest polls show Donald Trump leading in four of these states. Ohio is close, however, with John Kasich edging Trump in today’s polling average. Trump is posting wide leads in Florida, where Sen. Marco Rubio is in a do-or-die contest to salvage his home state.

Let’s look at how today’s state primaries could impact Trump’s ability to win the nomination based on three scenarios:

Scenario 1: Trump sweeps all five states. His delegate share would rise from 44%, which is where it is now, to 52%––giving him a majority of the total delegates selected so far. Trump would then need to win 48% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination on the first convention ballot.

Scenario 2: Trump wins all the states, except Ohio. His delegate share would rise from 44% to 48%. But Trump would still need to win 54% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination on the first ballot.

Scenario 3: Trump wins Illinois, North Carolina and Missouri but loses both Florida and Ohio. His delegate share would decline from 44% to 41%, which means Trump would then need to win 63% of all the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination on the first ballot. Should Trump lose Illinois instead of Florida, his delegate share would slightly rise from 44% to 45% and he’d still need 57% of remaining delegates to win the nomination. In either case, this scenario makes the prospect of a contested convention much more likely.

Switching to the Democrats…

Is there a Midwestern surge for Bernie Sanders? Sure looks like it based on recent polling from Ohio, Illinois and Missouri. Sanders is competitive in all three states. The two states where Clinton maintains solid leads are Florida and North Carolina, two pillars of her reliable Dixie Firewall.

amCharts

The latest polls

for Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina can be found on jklnewsroom.com

FLORIDA 2016 PRESIDENTIAL: REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Among FL Republican voters statewide

Quinnipiac % / NBC-WSJ-Marist % / CBS-YouGov % / FAU % / Monmouth % = Average %

Donald Trump: 46% / 43% / 44% / 44% / 44% = 44%

Marco Rubio: 22% / 22% / 21% / 21% / 27% = 23%

Ted Cruz: 14% / 21% / 24% / 21% / 17% = 19%

John Kasich: 10% / 9% / 9% / 9% / 9% = 9%

RON’S COMMENT: The last round of polling shows Trump well ahead of Rubio in Florida, with margins ranging from 17 to 24 points. Movement over the last week or so appears to have favored Trump: Since Monmouth’s March 3-6 poll, for example, Trump has jumped up 6 points and Rubio has fallen 8 points. Even if you assume Rubio picks up all of the undecided, Trump would still lead our polling average by a substantial 16 points.

 

FLORIDA 2016 PRESIDENTIAL: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among FL Democratic voters statewide

Quinnipiac % / NBC-WSJ-Marist % / CBS-YouGov % / PPP% / FAU % = Average %

Hillary Clinton: 60% / 61% / 62% / 57% / 59% = 60%

Bernie Sanders: 34% / 34% / 34% / 32% / 31% = 33%

RON’S COMMENT: Clinton tops our polling average by a sizable 27 points. The Dixie Firewall stands strong in the Sunshine State.

 

OHIO 2016 PRESIDENTIAL: REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Among OH Republican voters statewide

Quinnipiac % / NBC-WSJ-Marist % / CBS-YouGov %

John Kasich: 38% / 39% / 33% = 37%

Donald Trump: 38% / 33% / 33% = 35%

Ted Cruz: 16% / 19% / 27% = 21%

Marco Rubio: 3% / 6% / 6% = 5%

RON’S COMMENT: Polling shows a tight Ohio race with Kasich now edging Trump in this average. If you assume Kasich takes the undecided, he’d lead Trump 39-35.

 

OHIO 2016 PRESIDENTIAL: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among OH Democratic voters statewide

Quinnipiac % / NBC-WSJ-Marist % / CBS-YouGov % / PPP % (D)

Hillary Clinton: 51% / 58% / 52% / 46% = 52%

Bernie Sanders: 46% / 38% / 43% / 41% = 42%

RON’S COMMENT: Clinton has a 10-point lead in our polling average, thanks largely to the 20-point spread she wins in the NBS-WSJ poll. If you discard that poll as an outlier, she leads by a fairly narrow 50-43 margin. If you assume the undecided break for Sanders, as they did in Michigan, it’s then a 50-50 race.

 

ILLINOIS 2016 PRESIDENTIAL: REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Among IL Republican voters statewide

NBC-WSJ-Marist % / CBS-YouGov %

Donald Trump: 34% / 38% = 36%

Ted Cruz: 25% / 34% = 30%

John Kasich: 21% / 16% = 19%

Marco Rubio: 16% / 11% = 14%

RON’S COMMENT: The average of the two most recent polls in Illinois show Trump leading Cruz by only 6 points. However, neither poll measures the full impact of Trump’s Chicago rally cancellation Friday night. This is one to watch.

 

ILLINOIS 2016 PRESIDENTIAL: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among IL Democratic voters statewide

PPP(D) % / NBC-WSJ-Marist % / CBS-YouGov % = Average %

Hillary Clinton: 48% / 51% / 46% = 48%

Bernie Sanders: 45% / 45% / 48% = 46%

RON’S COMMENT: Something’s happening here, what it is ain’t exactly clear. A week and a half ago, Clinton led two polls in her birth state of Illinois by whopping 37-42 point margins. Now, the average of the last three polls shows a statistical tie.

 

MISSOURI 2016 PRESIDENTIAL: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among MO Democratic voters statewide

PPP(D) % / Fort Hays Univ. % = Average %

Hillary Clinton: 46% / 47%  = 47%

Bernie Sanders: 47% / 40%  = 44%

RON’S COMMENT: Two polls show the Missouri race to be competitive, with Clinton leading the poll taken March 3-10 and Sanders leading the most recent poll, taken March 11-12.

 

NORTH CAROLINA 2016 PRESIDENTIAL: REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Among NC Republican voters statewide; D poll

Donald Trump: 44%

Ted Cruz: 33%

John Kasich: 11%

Marco Rubio: 7%

RON’S COMMENT: The latest poll in North Carolina finds Trump holding an 11-point lead over Cruz. The previous three polls gave Trump advantages ranging from 6-20 points.

 

NORTH CAROLINA 2016 PRESIDENTIAL: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among NC Democratic voters statewide; D poll

Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders: +19 (56–37)

RON’S COMMENT: Clinton has a sizable lead in this Southern state.